SutteARIMA: A Novel Method for Forecasting the Infant Mortality Rate in Indonesia
نویسندگان
چکیده
This study focuses on the novel forecasting method (SutteARIMA) and its application in predicting Infant Mortality Rate data Indonesia. It undertakes a comparison of most popular widely used four methods: ARIMA, Neural Networks Time Series (NNAR), Holt-Winters, SutteARIMA. The were obtained from website World Bank. consisted annual infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births) 1991 to 2019. To determine suitable best for rate, results these methods compared based mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) squared (MSE). showed that accuracy level SutteARIMA (MAPE: 0.83% MSE: 0.046) Indonesia was smaller than other three methods, specifically ARIMA (0.2.2) with MAPE 1.21% MSE 0.146; NNAR 7.95% 3.90; Holt-Winters 1.03% 0.083.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Computers, materials & continua
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1546-2218', '1546-2226']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.32604/cmc.2022.021382